No, and for the reason I stated: Sony isn't going alone at this. Other companies stand to lose as well.
In the end, we all lose because of this though: two formats is bad.
If I'm not mistaken, Sony invented it.
According to Wiki, they were part of the original Blue-Ray Disc Association, along with 8 other electronic companies, many of those others being big names in the electronic biz, such as Phillips, Hitachi, and Sharp. Wiki does not say if any one company actually got credit for creating Blue Ray.
But among the other companies that have since joined on: Apple, Dell, HP, TDK, Twentieth Century Fox, Walt Disney, and Warner Bros.
There's a lot of money invested in these, even by the movie studios who are backing one format over another. It really is going to be a war of attrition.
Although if you buy a 360 solely for the purpose of playing HD-DVD movies, then yes, it's like the PS3...
Which is what MS, and Sony, are both pushing: use their hardware as a dual-purpose machine. Hell, use their machines to do everything.
In the end, it's a very logical move, all things considered. When I first got a PS2, I used it as a DVD player for awhile, because while it wasn't a great DVD player, I don't have a great tv anyways to worry about it. That, and it beat dropping extra cash for a real DVD player, since they still weren't cheap at that point.
I'm not saying that those predictions won't come to pass, but it's far too early to declare anything won or lost.